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Modeling and Forecasting Rainfall Pattern of Awasa

Downloads: 278 Avg Rating: 5.00 By: Mr Gemechu Abdisa in 2016.
In this paper, we have attempted to build a seasonal model of monthly rainfall data of Awasa town of Southern Nation and Peoples of Ethiopia using uni-variate Box-Jenkins’s methodology. The method of estimation and diagnostic analysis results revealed that the model was adequately fitted to the historical data. In particular, the residual analysis, which is important for diagnostic checking confirmed that there is no violation of assumptions in relation to model adequacy. Further comparison on the forecasting accuracy of the model is performed by holding-out some rainfall values. The point forecast results showed a very closer match with the pattern of the actual data and better forecasting accuracy in validation period. Accordingly, the final model chosen is SARIMA(2,0,2,2,1,1,12)

Additional Authors: Gemechu Abdisa

Document Type: Research Paper Topic Area: Other Submitted: 12th Dec 2016
Institution: gemechu.abdisa@aau.edu.et Department: Statistics, Addis Ababa University Country: Ethiopia
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5
Gemechu Abdisa
12th Dec 2016
"U did well!"